The coffee you drink every morning depends on a narrow set of biological conditions — specific temperatures, precise rainfall patterns, the right altitude. For the two species that supply almost all of the world's commercial coffee, those conditions are shifting faster than the plants can adapt. The science is now clear enough that researchers at institutions like the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, are openly predicting "major disruptions in coffee cultivation" within a decade.
This is not speculation about a distant future. Coffee prices have already become more volatile, certain origins are already producing less, and the specialty coffee industry is already beginning to look at alternative species it ignored for most of the last century. Understanding which coffee species are biologically vulnerable — and which are not — is increasingly relevant to anyone who pays attention to where their beans come from. This guide covers the science, species by species, and what it means for the coffee you buy today.
The scale of the problem
The clearest way to understand the threat is through land suitability projections. A landmark study published in PLOS ONE modelled how suitable growing areas for Arabica would shift under various climate scenarios. The headline figure: up to 50% of currently suitable Arabica land could become unviable by 2050. The losses are not evenly distributed — they fall hardest on the regions that currently produce the highest yields. In hot, dry growing areas like northern Minas Gerais in Brazil, the projection is that close to 80% of current coffee land will become unsuitable. Colombia's suitable zones shrink from roughly 56% to 45% of current production land. Brazil, as the world's largest Arabica producer, sees its suitable area fall from 81% to 62%.
Robusta is not immune either. Studies modelling Robusta suitability under different warming scenarios project a 36% reduction in suitable areas under low-impact scenarios, rising to 83% under high-impact projections. The coffee industry produces roughly 60% Arabica and 40% Robusta globally. Both pillars are under pressure simultaneously.
Projected growing area losses by 2050
| Species | Current suitable land | Projected loss by 2050 | Hardest-hit regions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arabica | 100% (baseline) | Up to 50% | Brazil (north), Nicaragua, India |
| Robusta | 100% (baseline) | 36–83% (scenario-dependent) | Vietnam, lowland West Africa |
| Liberica | Lowland tropics | Low — grows in conditions that worsen for Arabica | Not significantly at risk |
Arabica's biological constraints
Arabica's vulnerability is not incidental — it is built into the plant's biology. Coffea arabica evolved in the cool, shaded highlands of Ethiopia and South Sudan, at elevations between 1,000 and 2,000 metres. Its optimal mean annual temperature is a narrow band: 18°C to 21°C. Even modest deviations from this range have measurable effects on yield and bean quality. At temperatures consistently above 23°C, Arabica plants show reduced photosynthesis, poor cherry development, and increased susceptibility to pests and disease.
The genetic situation compounds the problem. Arabica is primarily self-pollinating, which means it has unusually low genetic diversity for a major food crop. The global commercial Arabica supply is essentially descended from a very small ancestral population — a genetic bottleneck that severely limits the plant's natural capacity to adapt to rapidly shifting conditions. When environments change faster than reproduction cycles can generate adaptive variation, species struggle. Arabica is in exactly that position.
Coffee Leaf Rust — Hemileia vastatrix, the fungal disease that devastated coffee plantations in Sri Lanka in the 1860s and has re-emerged across Latin America since the early 2010s — adds a second layer of pressure. Research published in Frontiers in Plant Science established that the rust fungus thrives between 22°C and 24°C — precisely the temperatures that lie just above Arabica's comfortable range. As growing regions warm, they are not just becoming less suitable for Arabica; they are simultaneously becoming more suitable for the pathogen that most threatens it. Farmers who historically moved to higher altitudes to escape the rust are now finding it following them uphill.
The altitude escape route is closing
For decades, the standard adaptive response to rising temperatures was to move coffee production higher up the mountain. As valley-floor temperatures became too warm, farmers shifted to higher elevations. But there is a ceiling to this strategy — both because mountains run out of flat, farmable land at altitude, and because Coffee Leaf Rust is now being recorded at elevations where it was historically absent, tracking the warming conditions upward.
Robusta's hidden vulnerabilities
Robusta — Coffea canephora — is often described as the hardier species, and in some respects it is. It grows at lower altitudes, tolerates higher temperatures than Arabica, and has a more robust immune system against many pests and diseases. It is also the species behind Malaysia's kopi culture and the espresso blends of southern Italy. But "robust" is increasingly a misleading descriptor when applied to climate resilience.
Robusta's critical weakness is water. Despite being more heat-tolerant than Arabica, Robusta has poor drought resistance. It requires consistent, substantial rainfall and does not handle extended dry periods well. Research modelling Robusta's water requirements found that even where temperatures remain acceptable, drought stress significantly reduces plant height, leaf development, and ultimately yield. A 2025 study in Frontiers in Climate found that grafting Robusta onto Arabica rootstocks improved its physiological performance under water stress — a telling finding, because it means Robusta's own roots are part of the problem. Its root system does not penetrate deeply enough to access groundwater during dry spells.
The irony of climate change for Robusta is that the regions where it grows most prolifically — lowland Vietnam, parts of West and Central Africa — are projected to face not just rising temperatures but increasingly erratic rainfall. The heat tolerance that was supposed to be Robusta's advantage may matter less than its water dependence if dry seasons lengthen and unpredictable weather disrupts the reliable wet-dry cycles the plant depends on to synchronise flowering and fruiting.
Why Liberica is built differently
Liberica — Coffea liberica — evolved in the hot, humid lowlands of West Africa, and Malaysia has been growing it commercially for over 150 years, primarily in Johor. The species' biology reflects its origins in a way that turns out to be advantageous in a warming world.
The most significant structural difference is the root system. Where Arabica and Robusta have relatively shallow roots concentrated in the topsoil, Liberica develops a deep taproot that penetrates far below the surface — accessing underground water reserves that are simply unavailable to its relatives. This is not a minor adaptation. In a drought, a plant that can reach water two metres down has a fundamentally different survival profile from one that depends on the top 30 centimetres of soil. Growers who have experimented with Liberica cultivation note that planting pits need to be made deeper specifically to accommodate this root architecture.
Liberica's leaves are also structurally different: larger, thicker, leathery, and waxy in a way that reduces moisture loss during heat stress. Where Arabica leaves are relatively thin and react to heat by effectively shutting down photosynthesis, Liberica maintains metabolic function under direct equatorial sunlight — a practical advantage in a lowland tropical climate.
Genetically, Liberica benefits from cross-pollination rather than self-pollination, which means it maintains higher genetic diversity and a broader reservoir of traits to draw on across generations. Jason Liew, founder of MY LIBERICA in Kulai, Johor, describes the species' adaptability in straightforward terms: "Liberica is hardy and adaptable — it grows well in both lowland and highland areas, with strong resistance to disease. Because of our lowland geography and tropical climate, Liberica thrives here. It belongs here."
That belonging has received international recognition. In October 2025, Jason Loo placed 4th at the World Barista Championship in Milan — using MY LIBERICA beans from Johor. It was the highest placement a Malaysian competitor has ever achieved at the competition, and it was built on a species that the specialty coffee industry spent decades ignoring.
🌴 Malaysia's position
Malaysia produces approximately 90% of the world's commercial Liberica supply. The climate conditions that are projected to devastate Arabica-growing highlands — higher temperatures, shifting rainfall — are largely the conditions Liberica already grows in. Malaysia's historical accident of adopting Liberica over Arabica may prove to be a significant agricultural advantage.
133 species — and we farm two of them
The commercial coffee industry runs almost entirely on two species: Arabica and Robusta. But researchers have now identified 133 distinct coffee species in the wild, many of them in tropical Africa, and the vast majority never evaluated for commercial production. Aaron Davis, senior research leader for Crops and Global Change at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew — arguably the leading coffee botanist in the world — has spent decades documenting this diversity and has been increasingly direct about its implications: "In the next decade or sooner, we may see some major disruptions in coffee cultivation." His prescription: "We need a portfolio of coffee crop species to adapt to altered climates."
Two alternative species are now attracting serious research attention beyond Liberica.
Excelsa (Coffea dewevrei), which was recently confirmed by genomic research to be a distinct species from Liberica rather than a subspecies, shows strong drought tolerance and thrives with lower rainfall than either Arabica or Robusta. At least 200 farms in Uganda, India, Vietnam, and South Sudan are now producing Excelsa for export. Catherine Kiwuka, senior research officer at Uganda's National Agricultural Research Organisation, is direct about the comparison: "Most farmers report that Excelsa is more resilient, more productive, and thus more profitable than Robusta." In India, where 60-year-old Excelsa trees are being re-evaluated after decades of neglect, growers are seeing practical advantages — the species is harvested in March and April, well after the late monsoon rains that continue to disrupt Arabica fruiting cycles.
Stenophylla (Coffea stenophylla), native to West Africa and currently extremely rare in cultivation, is more heat-tolerant than Arabica and more drought-tolerant than Robusta — while producing a cup that sensory research describes as almost indistinguishable from high-quality Arabica. It is not commercially available yet, but is under active research.
Most significantly, a 2026 study led by the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, proposed a new interspecies hybrid between Liberica and Excelsa — named Coffea × libex, or Libex coffee. The researchers investigated material sampled across Europe, Africa, and Asia and found that hybrids combine heat tolerance, drought resistance, and disease resistance from both parent species, and can be brought into production relatively quickly compared to conventional breeding timelines. It is early-stage research, but the fact that Kew's coffee team is now publishing on Liberica-Excelsa hybrids signals clearly where the scientific community sees the future of commercial coffee biology.
Alternative species at a glance
- Liberica: Commercially available now. Deep taproot, heat tolerant, thrives in lowland tropics. Malaysia is the world's primary producer. Flavour: bold, woody, tropical fruit.
- Excelsa (C. dewevrei): Growing commercially in Uganda, India, Vietnam. Drought tolerant, productive, harvested later in the season. Mild flavour with low caffeine. Widely described as more profitable than Robusta by farmers who grow both.
- Stenophylla: Not yet commercially available. Heat and drought tolerant. Arabica-like flavour. Under active research.
- Coffea × libex (Libex): New proposed hybrid of Liberica and Excelsa. Combines traits of both. Can be brought into production quickly. Research led by Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, published 2026.
What this means for your cup
For a Malaysian home brewer, the practical implications of all this unfold on a few different timescales.
In the short term — the next few years — climate disruption is already showing up as price volatility and supply inconsistency in certain Arabica origins. If your favourite Ethiopian or Colombian roast suddenly becomes harder to find or noticeably more expensive, the odds are good that a weather event in the growing region is part of the explanation. This is not new, but the frequency and severity of such disruptions is increasing.
In the medium term, the specialty coffee industry's relationship with origin is going to change. Origins that have been reliable for decades may become inconsistent or economically unviable. New origins — and new species — will enter the conversation. The fact that Excelsa is already appearing in UK supermarkets, and that a Malaysian competitor placed 4th at the World Barista Championship using Liberica, suggests the diversification has already started.
For Malaysia specifically, the shift is an opportunity as much as a challenge. Johor's Liberica farmers are growing the species that climate scientists and coffee researchers are increasingly identifying as a model for what commercial coffee farming may need to look like in a warmer world. The kopitiam kopi that Malaysians have been drinking for over a century was made from a species that turns out to be genuinely adapted to the conditions now developing across the tropics.
If you have not tried specialty-processed Liberica yet, the Liberica Malaysia guide covers what to expect from modern single-origin Liberica versus the kopi-roasted version you have probably already encountered. And if you want to understand how the species fit into the wider picture of Malaysian coffee culture, the Malaysian coffee heritage guide covers how Arabica and Liberica came to occupy their current roles — and how those roles are starting to converge.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will climate change eliminate coffee?
Climate change will not eliminate coffee as a crop, but it will significantly reshape which species and regions remain viable. Arabica faces losing up to 50% of suitable growing land by 2050. Robusta faces a 36–83% reduction in suitable areas under various projections. More resilient species — particularly Liberica, Excelsa, and new hybrids like Coffea × libex — are increasingly seen as critical to the industry's long-term survival, alongside breeding programmes using wild genetic diversity.
Why is Arabica more vulnerable to climate change than other coffee species?
Arabica has an unusually narrow temperature tolerance — it grows best between 18°C and 21°C and struggles significantly outside that range. It is also primarily self-pollinating, which means low genetic diversity and limited natural capacity to adapt. As temperatures rise, Arabica faces a compound problem: direct heat stress, expanding ranges for Coffee Leaf Rust (which thrives at 22–24°C), and the loss of high-altitude growing land that currently provides its preferred cool conditions.
Is Malaysian Liberica affected by climate change?
Malaysian Liberica is currently one of the least-affected commercial coffee species. It grows in Johor's hot, humid lowlands — conditions that stress Arabica but suit Liberica's biology. Its deep taproot system accesses underground water unavailable to shallow-rooted Arabica, and its thick, waxy leaves reduce moisture loss during heat stress. While no crop is entirely immune to climate disruption, Liberica's biology makes it substantially more resilient than the species that dominate global coffee trade.
What is Coffea × libex and why does it matter?
Coffea × libex (commonly called Libex coffee) is a newly proposed interspecies hybrid between Liberica and Excelsa, investigated by researchers at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, in collaboration with producers across Europe, Africa, and Asia. The hybrid combines heat tolerance, drought resistance, and disease resistance from both parent species. Researchers note it can be brought into production relatively quickly, making it a significant development for coffee producers facing growing conditions that neither Arabica nor Robusta can handle.